An extended and updated paper in the Nordic Future of Work project studies whether the occupational structure in Nordic labour markets is changing in the direction of upgrading or polarization. Based on data from 2000 to 2015, the results show clear tendencies towards polarization in Denmark, especially after the 2008 crisis, while upgrading is the dominant tendency in Norway in recent years. The tendencies in Finland and Sweden lie between these two countries.  In Sweden, clear upgrading is found in the public sector and in production of tangible goods, while modest signs of polarization is found in the private sector as a whole.

By studying the occupational changes in more detail, the researchers find some evidence suggesting that technological change is a main driver of change, but also indications that political and economic factors should be taken into consideration to understand occupational change in the Nordic region.