Fafo has received NOK 7 million from the Research Council of Norway to conduct research on Russian citizens who have left their home country in the wake of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – the so called “new Russian diaspora".

The aim of the project is to map how politics in Russia and the new host countries affect political mobilization from this group – whether it is for or against the Putin regime.

"With the project, we want to understand to what extent and in what ways this diaspora in Europe can influence developments in Russia in the future. And not least – how pressure and the risk of sanctions from the current regime limit the group's room for manoeuvre," project manager and Fafo researcher Guri Tyldum says.

Across Europe

Fafo and its collaborators will conduct a comparative study in five different countries with a strong presence of Russian diaspora: Georgia, Serbia, Latvia, England and Norway.

Based on this, the project seeks to provide a better understanding of the composition and organization of the Russian diaspora in Europe as a whole.

The primary objective will nevertheless be to understand how the host countries' policies – whether they are inclusive or exclusive towards the Russian immigrants – can create or limit opportunities for political mobilization.

“The EU has introduced a number of sanctions that are intended to hit the Russian elites. But we know little about how they affect the democratic opposition and journalists who have fled to Europe, and their opportunities to maintain contact with people in their home countries. This is especially relevant at a time when the Russian diaspora lives in increasing fear of transnational oppression and reprisals against family members," says Tyldum.

Another important part of the project is to explore how limited rights of residence in the different countries – as well as sanctions and hostility towards Russians – affect strategies in the Russian diaspora.

"These are also important factors that affect political mobilization," says Tyldum.

Thematic boost

Until now, it has primarily been journalists who have investigated how sanctions, fear of consequences from the regime in their home country and access to rights of residence can limit or encourage political mobilization among the new Russian diaspora.

Tyldum expects that the research project will provide a significant boost in knowledge in this field.

In addition to the specific research findings, she hopes that the project also contributes to developing knowledge about political mobilization and transnational political activism in refugee studies:

"The expertise we develop in this project will also be of benefit to research on other migrant groups. In addition, the study will help to build expertise on Russian opposition movements abroad. This knowledge will be very relevant if a regime change in Russia were to become a reality," Tyldum emphasizes.

Three-year project

The research project will start in October and is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2027.

Fafo will lead the research project, but with the following partners:

• Georgia: Caucasus Research Resource Center
• Germany: Centre for East European and International Studies (ZOiS)
• USA: University of Notre Dame
• Latvia: University of Latvia