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  • Guri Tyldum and Huafeng Zhang

Arrival dynamics in three phases

Temporary collective protection for displaced persons from Ukraine in Norway

  • Policy brief December 2023
  • Policy brief December 2023

By 30 November 2023, 67,909 displaced persons from Ukraine had applied for temporary collective protection (TCP) in Norway. In this policy brief, we describe the displaced from Ukraine who have travelled this far, their family composition, when they arrived and what areas in Ukraine they come from. To do this we analyse arrival registration data collected by the Norwegian directorate of migration.

Short summary

In the first weeks after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the number of displaced from Ukraine seeking TCP was not as high in Norway (even relative to population size) as in most other European countries. In subsequent months, the share of TCP holders seeking protection in Norway has gradually increased. From the second to the third quarter of 2023, the numbers of TCP applications granted in Norway increased by 63 percent, while the number of new applications in the EU/Schengen area at large was relatively stable (down by 1 percent). Although other countries saw an increase in TCP applications in this period, only Norway and Luxembourg saw increases above 60 percent.

While women and children dominated among the persons asking for TCP in the first two months after the full-scale invasion, men made up a larger share in later arrival phases. The gender distribution throughout 2023 has been similar to the gender distribution in Ukraine prior to the war. Households with at least one child make up less than half (44 percent) of all households on TCP in Norway.

One in five TCP holders in Norway have been outside of Ukraine for three months or more before seeking TCP in Norway (secondary movers). If we look only at applications submitted in 2023, one in three are secondary migrants. The share who has left Ukraine less than 3 months before they apply for TCP in Norway (direct movers) has been relatively stable throughout 2023. In September and October when arrival numbers were particularly high, persons coming directly from Ukraine still made up 70 (September) and 69 (October) percent of weekly TCP applications. We do not know what countries the secondary movers have stayed in before coming to Norway, as data on place of residence before coming to Norway has not been collected in a systematic manner. Analysis of data on previous residence permits and travel routes suggests that the majority of secondary movers have stayed in Poland or other neighbouring countries before coming to Norway. 14 percent of the secondary movers report having been in Southern Europe or West European countries one normally does not travel through to reach Norway from Ukraine.

Of the TCP holders in Norway, 57 percent are from currently occupied areas or areas close to the current frontline (November 2023). Another 22 percent of TCP holders in Norway come from areas that were previously occupied or close to the frontline. Among secondary movers, 70 percent are from currently occupied areas or areas currently close to the frontline.

  • Publisert: 15. desember 2023